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Make Better Bets: An Actuary's Quest to Bet the Russian 2018 FIFA World Cup with Excel Kindle Edition

4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 8 ratings

This is an actuary gone rogue story. Actuaries assess all kinds of risk and in this case it's in the realm of sports betting. This is a look at how anyone can methodically setup a program to imitate and model future states of the world in a probabilistic manner. The world is not just win-lose-tie, black or white, up or down, but more of a sliding scale or spectrum of results. Learn to think in probabilities and use that information to make better decisions. This is a dive into getting fired and being scared to developing a sports model in Microsoft Excel and using that model to bet thousands of dollars on the 2018 World Cup in Russia, with no regrets.

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B0893K72LZ
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ May 22, 2020
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • File size ‏ : ‎ 7.8 MB
  • Simultaneous device usage ‏ : ‎ Unlimited
  • Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
  • Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
  • Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 146 pages
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 8 ratings

About the author

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Jack Allweil
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I’m an avid reader, mathlete, and soccer fan. I’ve turned my energy to “mini” self-directed projects as I am eager to start real learning. I’m on a journey to find the intersection of my actuarial background (FSA 2021) and love for sports and personal finance. I believe that our country lacks financial education and I am eager to help where I can.

Customer reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars
8 global ratings

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Top reviews from the United States

  • Reviewed in the United States on June 22, 2020
    I highly recommend for anyone who is interested in analytics. This is a book that every sports gambler, whether they be professional or amateur, should read. Jack writes with an enthusiasm that spurs the reader to mimic his predictive models while he openly shares some of his own challenges in creating them. He's one of those rare individuals who actively sought out opportunities to learn more about a topic that he loves and then discover ways to combine that new knowledge with his professional training/career. The first line in the summary of this book reads “this is an actuary gone rogue story” and it is most certainly that. Rather than writing about predictive modeling for life insurance, which I'm sure would put even an actuary to sleep, Jack found a way to take those techniques and apply it to something that gets people excited, FÚTBOL!
    One person found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on June 23, 2020
    HIGHLY RECOMMENDED!!!!
  • Reviewed in the United States on April 20, 2023
    The Book wasn’t what I expected in a good way. The author was entertaining. He somehow managed to keep the book about the data and modeling in between the laughs. Looking forward to another book.
  • Reviewed in the United States on February 11, 2021
    A delightful story of a young post college man searching the world after a disastrous job experience. An introspective look at an American man going to Europe questioning how life may have been different if his grandfather had not left Poland in the 1930"s. The mathematics of his own World Cup betting scheme is mixed with this story and made even a non-sports person enjoy the read.
    One person found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on May 11, 2021
    Great read, very well written and interesting from cover to cover!

Top reviews from other countries

  • John Park
    4.0 out of 5 stars A great read
    Reviewed in Canada on July 30, 2021
    This book was really interesting. I love the concrete examples he gave of the exact formulas he used in Excel and he did a great job explaining the modeling concepts and his choice of variables and assumptions. I would highly recommend especially for people interested in soccer and/or modeling. I give 4 stars because I believe there were some punctuation errors, but it doesn't takeaway from the great book.

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